Don’t get me wrong, coronavirus is bad. Estimates range from a 0.6% to a 6% fatality rate, depending on the time and place of measurement. The WHO estimated a 3.4% fatality rate.
You should be doing everything in your power to #FlattenTheCurve.
Yes, you may be in the low death risk category, but by flattening the curve (i.e. postponing contraction of the virus) you lower stress on the healthcare system and create more time for people to be vaccinated, thus lowering the death toll in two ways.
Pandemics
Pandemics are not new.
From the bubonic plague of the mid-1300s which is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europeans (75-200 million people), to Influenza of 1918 (aka Spanish Flu) which killed approximately 50 million people, or 2.5% of the people infected, pandemics come and go.
For comparison, the seasonal flu kills approximately 0.1% of those that catch it.
So, current estimates have coronavirus as worse than the Spanish Flu in terms of deaths per infected person, or about 34 times worse than the seasonal flu.
While statistics are important for measuring an outbreak and therefore reacting to it effectively, what I want to highlight is:
- Pandemics aren’t new and
- They will continue to arise
In other words, what is happening now shouldn’t surprise us. Nor should it in the future.
Coronavirus Alternatives
The Marburg virus has a death rate of 90%. A particular strain of Ebola virus, the Zaire Ebola virus also has a death rate of 90%. However, these viruses are less widespread due to their inability to transfer across hosts efficiently. For example, the Marburg virus is spread by exposure to infected blood or tissue, or from a host animal such as a bat or its faeces.
Now imagine the Marburg virus’s death rate combined with the ability to spread via cough or sneeze and remain active on some surfaces for days after initial contact.
We would be looking at a virus that infects 80-100% of people and then kills 90% of those. That is not out of the realm of possibility.
The Present is Uncertain
In any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: solve the immediate problem and keep it from happening again.
Bill Gates
As the COVID-19 outbreak continues, we will continue to collect data. This data can be used to map what works and what doesn’t. We will be able to see what the bottlenecks were. These may include:
- Detecting the novel virus
- Containing it – which includes things like creating cheap tests, and the effective distribution of such tests
- Creating a vaccine (quickly)
- Political/bureaucratic impediments to action
We don’t know how the next few months will pan out. Each country is taking slightly different precautions. Every country has different cultural norms, and differing population demographics. These will all impact the death rate for each country, and therefore the overall death rate.
The particulars of how the virus interacts with current antivirals, how it manipulates cell behaviour and how it replicates are also still unknown.
What we do know, however, is that this won’t be the last time a novel virus knocks on our door.
The Future Is Certain
How can we call ourselves an advanced species and neglect existential issues?
Existential crises include pandemics, but also threats of nuclear war, and uncontrolled AI.
These may be a low priority events, but multiplying by the impact of the respective event (extinction), results in a large expected impact (think expected value from probability class).
It may be easy to cast aspersions about how bad we are now, after the fact a pandemic is declared, however, many people and organisations such as Effective Altruism have been trying to send more resources to this area for some time.
Some Positives
Coronavirus isn’t that bad. We will survive as a species.
We have been given the opportunity for a rehearsal of something far worse.
Now, we should focus on responding to the immediate threat.
After we have successfully vaccinated against coronavirus, we should be eager to institute plans for these events, and update them as new research takes place, and not just when a pandemic occurs.
We need to be proactive, not reactive.
Taking Action
Group Action
The government should have plans, erring on the side health protection and not economic stability for the duration of an outbreak. Without people, there is no economy. They should also enforce planning for large enough businesses. Whether that be a work from home policy, which need only be made active when necessary.
We must continue to direct resources toward science. Research into pandemics is neglected and is considered a “high impact” career according to 80000 hours.
However, we really should put more funding in all science. Research into physics may allow for new engineering practices that allows vaccines to be mass produced at 2x the speed in the case of a pandemic. There is very little downside to preparing. Science will be able to use vaccination development techniques for seasonal flu. New research into hygiene practices can be used everywhere.
Let coronavirus be a reminder to the value of human life. Not an Australian life, an Ugandan life, a Chinese life or a Belgian life. A human life.
It still dumbfounds me that war is a thing for a supposedly smart species. We need to move towards a society of doubt, science and empiricism and not faith if we, as a species, are to continue towards the most effective society.
Let’s hope to see more actions like the Chinese towards Italy, and less of the more selfish actions of the EU towards its member state.
Individual Action
Last but not least, you as an individual should prepare and help prevent future outbreaks.
If you’re a business owner or politician, start planning — after the current situation has died down. If you are looking to donate money, consider donating to existential threat reduction charities.
Also, as an individual, if you stop consuming meat, you reduce the likelihood of such an outbreak occurring too. Ebola, Anthrax, Bubonic plague, HIV, SARS and Coronavirus are all zoonotic diseases. That is, they come from animals. In fact, three quarters of new diseases in humans are transmitted from animals. Eating meat is immoral, terrible for the environment, unhealthy and the the production of it is disease manifesting. Just go vegan.
Now what?
Let us continue to support each other for the duration of this outbreak. Let us remember the impact that a virus with a (current) 3.4% death rate is having and will have on society.
It is not just another flu. It’s worse and we should treat it as such.
This is a fantastic opportunity to learn where we can improve, and also to think about what really matters to us as individuals and as a species.
